Arrival Oscars

The Oscars are finally here!

This Sunday the 89th Academy Awards is airing and the answer to “which movie is the unequivocal, objective best of 2016?” will finally be revealed. (Not really, but whatever.)

In anticipation of the big night I’m going to list my Final* Oscar Predictions that I’m bringing to my Oscar party and sticking to completely. Like most years, a lot of the categories are basically foregone conclusions. However, there are a few that remain a mystery or a tight race, like Best Actor and Best Foreign Language Film. There are also some that are basically toss-ups every year, like all three Shorts categories.

*Predictions aren’t actually final, I’m sure I’ll waffle back and forth all weekend.

It seems like a La La Land sweep is inevitable (it’s already tied for most nominations ever) but I’d like to see some surprises. It’s always nice when the Academy spreads the wealth a little. In this list I’ve mentioned who I believe will win, nominees that may end up being spoilers, nominees that should win the award and then my vision of a perfect world where my personal preferences are all that matter.

Here’s my list and enjoy the parade of attractive and rich people this Sunday at 8:30 PM on ABC.

Moonlight Oscars

Best Picture



Hacksaw Ridge

Hidden Figures

La La Land


Manchester by the Sea



Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Moonlight

Should Win: Arrival or Moonlight (they’re all good though)

Perfect World: Green Room

Actor in a Leading Role

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences


Will Win: Denzel Washington

Could Win: Casey Affleck

Should Win: Denzel Washington

Perfect World: Anton Yelchin, Green Room or Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins


Will Win: Emma Stone

Could Win: Isabelle Huppert

Should Win: Natalie Portman

Perfect World: Anya Taylor-Joy, The Witch

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals


Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Dev Patel

Should Win: Michael Shannon (because he deserves every award)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea


Will Win: Viola Davis

Could Win: No one else, really.

Should Win: No one else, really.

Perfect World: Viola freakin’ Davis

Animated Feature Film

Kubo and the Two Strings


My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle



Will Win: Zootopia

Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Perfect World: The Red Turtle



La La Land





Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Arrival or Lion

Should Win: Silence or Moonlight

Perfect World: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Costume Design


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins


La La Land


Will Win: Jackie

Could Win: La La Land or Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Should Win: Jackie

Perfect World: The Nice Guys


Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight


Will Win: Damien Chazelle

Could Win: Barry Jenkins

Should Win: Barry Jenkins or Denis Villeneuve

Perfect World: Jeremy Saulnier, Green Room or Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Documentary (Feature)

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America



Will Win: O.J.: Made in America

Could Win: I Am Not Your Negro

Should Win: O.J.: Made in America

Perfect World: HyperNormalisation or Weiner

Documentary (Short Subject)


4.1 Miles

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets


Will Win: Joe’s Violin

Could Win: 4.1 Miles or The White Helmets

Should Win: The White Helmets

Perfect World: The White Helmets

Film Editing


Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land



Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Should Win: Moonlight or Arrival

Perfect World: Green Room or Arrival

Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman


Toni Erdmann


Will Win: A Man Called Ove

Could Win: The Salesman or Toni Erdmann

Should Win: Toni Erdmann

Perfect World: The Wailing

Makeup and Hairstyling

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad


Will Win: Star Trek Beyond

Could Win: A Man Called Ove

Should Win: Suicide Squad

Perfect World: Suicide Squad

Music (Original Score)


La La Land





Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Jackie

Should Win: Jackie

Perfect World: Swiss Army Man

Music (Original Song)

“Auditions (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls

“City of Stars” from La La Land

“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana


Will Win: “City of Stars”

Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go”

Should Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” or “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

Perfect World: “I’m So Humble” from Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Production Design


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land



Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (The Academy loves period pieces)

Should Win: Hail, Caesar!

Perfect World: Green Room

Short Film (Animated)

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes




Will Win: Piper

Could Win: Pearl

Should Win: Borrowed Time

Perfect World: (Haven’t seen enough shorts)

Short Film (Live Action)

Ennemis Intérieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights




Will Win: Ennemis Intérieurs

Could Win: La Femme et le TGV or Sing

Should Win: (Haven’t seen the nominees)

Perfect World: (Haven’t seen enough shorts)

Sound Editing


Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land



Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Could Win: La La Land

Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Perfect World: Don’t Breath

Sound Mixing


Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi


Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Perfect World: Don’t Breathe

Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story


Will Win: The Jungle Book

Could Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story or Kubo and the Two Strings

Should Win: The Jungle Book

Perfect World: The Jungle Book

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)



Hidden Figures




Will Win: Moonlight

Could Win: Fences

Should Win: Moonlight

Perfect World: Moonlight

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women


Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Manchester by the Sea

Should Win: Manchester by the Sea or The Lobster

Perfect World: The Nice Guys

Michael Walls-Kelly

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